Preparing for the unpredictable
By Hymie Anisman
There’s a well-known Yiddish saying ‘Mann tracht und Gott lacht’ meaning Man plans and God laughs. It isn’t unusual for people to live under the illusion (or delusion) that life will be good or get better, and this sense of optimism (or is it entitlement or perhaps hope?) may favor the propensity to plan for a future blessed by comfort, happiness, close friends and family, and good health. But it doesn’t always work out this way. Nature, Fate, or God (depending on the individual’s belief system) may have other plans for them. After all, bad things happen, even to good people, despite what we might like to believe.
Extraordinary events that weren’t expected can sweep aside best laid plans. Some of these occurrences are described as ‘once in a hundred-year events’ even though there are so many of them, each descending upon us ever more frequently, that we should long ago have jettisoned our rose-colored glasses. The COVID-19 pandemic was an unexpected event – or at least it was for those who ignored history, or simply weren’t aware of threats on the horizon. Over the last century or so, humankind experienced six pandemics, and repeated warnings had been issued concerning the inevitability of being struck by another pandemic. Yet, government officials were seemingly ‘caught by surprise’, leaving most countries unprepared to deal with the viral onslaught.
Fortunately, in many regions (e.g., Israel) the frequency of infections and deaths declined relatively quickly thanks in large measure to vaccine availability and uptake, together with safety measures being implemented, such as social distancing and wearing a mask. Sadly, in other countries (e.g., Brazil, India), the situation was dire owing to overpopulation and poverty, the failure of governments to adopt adequate and sustained preventive strategies, and most of all the lack of vaccines.
One would think that there’s hardly a person unaware of the risks of COVID-19 and what can be done to prevent its occurrence. And yet, a sizable portion of the population in many countries indicated that they didn’t intend to be vaccinated. As a result, herd immunity may not be reached readily, and with continued SARS-CoV-2 spread further mutations of the virus may evolve so that it becomes more infectious, more deadly, and may produce more prominent effects in younger people. It’s a good bet that despite this threat multiplier there will be ‘diehards’ who persist in their vaccine hesitancy.
Vaccine hesitancy is hardly a new problem. It was evident when vaccines first appeared to prevent smallpox and push back occurred in response to tuberculosis and polio vaccinations. Only about 40% of individuals were inoculated during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which was comparable to that seen for yearly flu invasions. There doesn’t seem to be any single reason for the widespread vaccine hesitancy, but lack of trust is a common denominator. This was cultivated by political influences and by fears related to the safety of the vaccines. Of course, lack of trust was also fueled by endemic misinformation propagated through social media, often fostered by conspiracy theories. There has been mistrust of the general media, perhaps owing to their penchant for sensationalizing events, and government agencies were similarly distrusted after having used up ‘their quota of scary utterances’ in the context of earlier pandemic threats that had not materialized to the extent predicted.
Perhaps no amount of coaxing, cajoling, shaming, or threats will turn the tide on strong opinions and may even increase intransigence. Educational programs that appeal to broad audiences too often have little effect. Change could come about through baby steps, such as by nudging people to accept and engage appropriate behaviors but this is likely to be too slow to affect a roiling pandemic. With many millions of social media followers, the anti-vaccine movement has been extremely successful in getting their message out, whereas those on the other side had for a time minimized the potency of the anti-vaxxer movement. Ultimately, we are all social beings, and in times of uncertainty, we look to others that we trust for answers. As a result, we are eager for information that allows us to act in concert with those who see the world the same way we do. Thus, promoting vaccine acceptance might be effective through approaches that capitalize on the influence of social groups.
It is a truism that prevention is often better than cure. But how can prevention be undertaken for diseases that don’t yet exist and might never materialize. No matter how impossible it is to predict the unpredictable, we can count on further pandemics of some form emerging. Neither hubris nor complacency is not an option to deal with these threats. Societies need to be prepared to deal with new pathogens before they wreak havoc, rather than trying to play catch up. This entails having early warning systems in place and it is obviously necessary for adequate supplies and treatment facilities to be available, as well as the capacity to produce vaccines regionally, allowing for their timely roll out. And it is absolutely essential to proactively appeal to the many factors that can thwart vaccine hesitancy. To this end encouraging shared group membership may promote trust and could potentially alter views that ultimately diminish reluctance to be vaccinated.
Book details
Health Psychology a Biopsychosocial Approach
Second Edition
Hymie Anisman
April 2021
ISBN: 9781529731620
About the author
