The resilience of the European Union to Brexit
What impact will Brexit have on the decision-making processes and outputs of the European Union (EU)? Losing one of its largest member states – in terms of the size of the UK’s population, economy, diplomatic resources and military power – could have important consequences for the policies that the EU will adopt and for the relations among the remaining states. Much has been written about the causes of Brexit and its possible effects on the United Kingdom (UK) and the economic relations between the UK and the EU27. However, there has been little systematic analysis of the possible effects of Brexit on the functioning of EU institutions.
In this article, authors examine two of the most prominent datasets on recent decision-making in the European Union, which include data on cooperation networks among member states before and after the 2016 referendum. Using concepts and models from the spatial model of politics and network analysis, they formulate and test expectations regarding the effects of Brexit.
Some member states face particularly significant challenges as a consequence of Brexit. The mediating roles of the remaining larger member states, in particular France, Germany and Poland, are likely to be enhanced by Brexit. Some smaller and medium-sized states – Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden – confront the toughest challenges in maintaining their influence in the Council. The findings of this paper identify some of the political challenges that Brexit will bring, but also highlight the factors that are already helping the European Union’s remaining member states to adapt to Brexit. By being aware of and actively responding to the pressures that Brexit will bring, the EU has the capacity to adapt successfully.
Article details
Don’t cry for me Britannia: The resilience of the European Union to Brexit
Narisong Huhe, Daniel Naurin, Robert Thomson
DOI: 10.1177/1465116519882096
European Union Politics