Race and the Probability of Becoming a Head Coach for the National Football League
I’ve never had good timing. I buy stocks before a crash, I start binging a new TV series just as it’s erased from public consciousness, but, for once, my timing was impeccable. On February 1st, my coauthors (Josh Pitts and John Johnson) and I published a paper in The Review of Black Political Economy. The paper aimed to determine if there is racial bias in the hiring process of NFL Head Coaches. That same day, former Miami Dolphins Head Coach, Brian Flores, filed a lawsuit against the NFL and three NFL franchises alleging racial discrimination in the hiring process of NFL head coaches. Talk about good timing…
In our paper, we find mixed evidence regarding the racial effects in the hiring process. In simple, broad, models, we find no clear evidence of discrimination. However, as our estimating techniques advance, the results become more interesting. In particular, there are two findings in our research that might support Brian Flores’s claim of racial discrimination.
The first of these findings is in regards to a head coaching candidate’s experience as a football player. Playing experience is a trait that appears to be valued by executives; both offensive and defensive coordinators with NFL playing experience are more likely to land a head coaching job than coordinators that did not compete in the NFL. However, our analysis indicates that the benefits to playing experience may vary by race. Simply put, black candidates with NFL playing experience appear to be at a disadvantage relative to non-black candidates with comparable NFL playing experience.
Secondly, we find evidence that may be indicative of recent race-based discrimination. In our analysis, we consider five three-year time periods. While we find no clear evidence of discrimination in the time periods that elapsed from 2006 to 2017, we show that being black appeared to hamper a candidates chances of landing a head coaching job in the 2018 to 2020 period. Since this is the most recent time period in our data, one could surmise that this finding is consistent with the case being made by Brian Flores’s attorneys.
In the wrong hands, our findings could easily be exaggerated. Readers searching for discrimination can quickly find our two aforementioned results and paint a picture of widespread, blatant racism in the NFL. On the contrary, those with a tendency to refute such claims can point to many findings in our paper that aren’t suggestive of discrimination. The truth, as is often the case, is nuanced. Our paper provides some evidence that discrimination could be occurring, but I would discourage readers from viewing our results as conclusive. Hopefully our article serves as a catalyst for future investigations regarding race and hiring processes in the NFL.
Article details
Race and the Probability of Becoming a Head Coach for NFL Coordinators Since the Introduction of the Rooney Rule: Why Isn't Eric Bieniemy a Head Coach yet?
Joshua D.Pitts, Brent Evans, John D. Johnson
First Published February 1, 2022
DOI: 10.1177/00346446221076866
The Review of Black Political Economy
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