Terrorism: The present, the future and the unpredictability of the threat

By Sara Brzuszkiewicz

Contemporary terrorism trends have reached new levels of unpredictability, making terrorism and radicalisation harder to address. This is due to two main factors that have emerged only recently. The first is the bipolarity of the terrorist threat, where, on the one hand, major international crises like the war in Ukraine are amplifying the magnitude and importance of radical groups; And on the other hand, European countries are witnessing a rise of lone-actor attacks on their territory. The second factor is the ideological fluidity that has pervaded radicalisation trends. Individuals seize ideological narratives and communication strategies from several ideologies. This increases the resonance of the threat while making it more difficult to identify. We must better understand these two dynamics to offer concrete solutions to contemporary terrorism.

First, the bipolarity between international conflicts and domestic threats increases the complexity of radicalisation and runs the risk of underestimating its permeation within Europe. As exemplified by the attention given to the conflict in Ukraine since the outbreak of the war, international conflicts have been a priority for policymakers and analysts, understandably so. Russian right-wing extremist forces and paramilitary groups like Wagner, characterised as terrorist organisations, have a large impact and presence on the ground. In Ukraine, right-wing extremist and nationalist forces linked to hooliganism and the Azov movement are overrepresented in certain battalions where volunteers from other European nations are involved, which raises the concern for ideological contagion among these armed groups.

However, while paying such attention to international conflicts is justified, the threat of terrorism domestically has somewhat been overlooked in Europe. Despite decreasing terrorist attacks in Europe since 2019 and the fall of the Islamic State (IS), the last few months have seen a recrudescence of terrorism. As recently as the 16th of October 2023, an armed individual claiming to belong to the IS killed two Swedish nationals in Brussels. This tragic event was a flaring reminder of the existing terrorist threat in Europe which has amplified over the past months. In addition, the democratisation of terrorism is likely to intensify due to the simplification of terrorist methods and the increasing crossovers between various radical movements.

Second, the ideological fluidity of contemporary radicalisation makes it particularly difficult to identify terrorist threats. Over the past few years, terrorism has become the product of ideological crossovers and mishmashes of radical influences. Deep loyalty to specific doctrinal principles and worldviews has been replaced by strange combinations of ideas from various ideologies. In the United States, far-right terrorist groups and jihadist organisations have been found to have collaborated in the past. Not only did they converge in exchanging views, but they also shared materials and knowledge on how to increase the lethality of their actions. These cross-fertilisation processes are becoming increasingly dynamic, as imitation does not even necessarily require perpetrators to communicate with each other nor fully share the same ideologies.

Today, the terrorist threat is characterised by unprecedented levels of unpredictability. The severity and proximity of international conflicts to Europe risk disguising the terrorist threat domestically, which has become particularly challenging to identify due to the ideological fluidity of contemporary radical milieux. As such, it is crucial to act rapidly. We must review our understanding of radicalisation and radicalism, and consequentially design strategies to monitor the complex trends of ideological cross-fertilisation.